Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
